Current house price hike,especially certain area in the Klang Valley, reflects there is a danger of bubble burst. Don't you think so? A normal landed two and half storeys at Kepong area could sell at the price of more than Ringgit Malaysia one million, don't you think it is radiculous and crazy? Is that because location? Given a choice, under the same conditions, I think most of the buyer would prefer to buy the landed property at Petaling Jaya. Unfortunely, due to chain effect, it has been used as a bench mark for other location to increase the price to a new high. I recalled same fenomena happen in year 1994 when share market shot up to higher level, due to greediness and fear of couldn't buy share at lower price, follow by the "effect of goats in a group", speculators rushed to buy shares at higher price until to the extend Index reached to the historical high at more than 1200 points. As rumour spread, some of the speculators are politicus who in need of the fund to support for the in coming election. They bought share at the lower price and purportedly spread the rumour, flamed by the "market expert" who has the benefits and political link to the politicus, and used that as the sentiments to made share price increased to much higher level. The market become so hot when political link player who has claimed to be good in predicting the market give an "assurance" that market will be bullish soon, he was often correct in predicting a share counter whereby everytime he bought a particular share, surely the share price of that particular share counter will shot up to higher level, he was therefore called "golden finger" where he has the ability to turn good to become gold after his finger touch. When most of the normal investor rushed to buy the share, the share price drastically become so expensive.Due to chain effect, the second liner also become so expensive. Without knowing by the market, the politicus cashed in by selling most of thier shares just before election. Not long after the election, the whole market collaped due to such act and lack of market confidence.We worry this will happen to the share market in the similar manner, after all these group of people cann't play be fooled anymore in the share market as investor learned from their past lesson, now they turn their attention on to the property market. Where is the "golden finger" and market expert now?
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2010/09/24 6:11:45 PM
●陈建业
《南洋商报》9月23日封面标题再次提及喧嚷沸腾多时的巴生谷房地产涨风。此课题各方经已抒发己见，人言人殊，其结论见仁见智，莫衷一是。
忝为十多年的产业代理，虽然已经在其他报章与财经杂志已经发表相关意见，但言犹未尽，希望借此报章能再参与其盛，在投资产业前能多一份参考。
吉隆坡以及巴生谷一带的有地房产涨势惊人，涨到不仅50%，有些甚至达至100%，很多人猜测是外国人的涌入抢购，才足以造成如斯高副度的涨潮。
我们手头上没有正确的外国以及本地投资于有地房产者的资料。肯定的，本地的投资者远超外国投资者。顾名思义，直接的外国投资者是直接购买我国房产者，非直接投资者是投资在房产相关挂牌公司的股票或者其衍生品，例如房产投资信托（REIT）等。
炒作令房产价波动
从 这次巴生谷一带屋价飚升，多为有地房产，是有违外资投资我国房产的常规。通常，外资比较喜欢投资予高楼住宅；因为它较集中，比较容易托人打理收租。其实， 高楼住宅在经济蓬勃时，租金比较高，而且比较安全，是外国人的最爱。相较下，有地房产租金回酬偏低，打理收租比较麻烦，所以较不受外资欢迎。如果这次屋价 飚升是外资直接的投资，真是反其道而生。如果有外国投资于有地房产，非直接性投资的可能性比较高。
无论如何，房产价格的波动，离不开成本、需求、炒作等因素。
先 看成本，建筑成本包括建筑材料今年涨价大约20至30巴仙。反观屋价，大体上却飚升到50至100巴仙。再者需求，以目前平均收入水平，有能力购买自居者 不多，不至于造成房屋的暴涨。那么，有能力的投资者，通常都会购买两间或以上的房产，以期屋价高涨时脱售牟利，但这不是真正的需求。总体来讲，炒作的成分 比较高。
虽然我国房地产在亚洲区域性来说，价格方面相对便宜，然而外国投资者比较偏向于外国，集居的地区如吉隆坡市中心、金三角、金地、孟沙等，而且以商业及高楼住宅为主，有地房产较少受到外资的倩徕。
如果说外资有投资于有地房产的话，应该乃非直接投资，例如上面所述，是经过投资于房产相关的股市与房产投资基金里。
纵观以上的分析，我们担心我国房产的泡沫逐渐成形。泡沫的形成是于其价格远超于基本面。相较之下，实有地产业自居的需求不高，因为在巴生谷一带，有地房产的价格高昂，非一般打工仔有能力购买的。其次，价格的飚升，远超于成本的高涨，不是理论可以加以解释的。
由股市转向房地产
这有点类似金融风暴股票炒作的手法，投机多于投资。让我们分析这些所谓的投机手法，若是目前大选趋近，政局不稳定的时刻，应当格外注意。
第一，经过上次的股市风暴之后，散户已经对投资于股市有些防备了，所以要炒作股市已经没那么容易了。因此，投机客转向房地产，以便伺机待发。
投机的手法有以下几个可能性：－
1) 一些与银行有密切关系的投机客，成立两元有限公司，尽量向银行贷款，在“有潜能”的地点大量购入房产，然后在释放几间喊出高价出售“成交”，以为日后该地点“市价”的指标，等时机或市场不明郎时，尽量提早高价放出以便一走了之。
2) 第二种作法比较乾净俐落，投机客以购买股票或信托基金间接投资于房地产有关的挂牌公司。无良的有关连的挂牌公司尽量以各种方式将股份或信托基金炒高，当时机或市场不明郎时，尽量提升搜集，而须负起股份崩溃的罪名。
根据预测，房产的泡沫不会这样快爆破，至少它会延至全国大选过后才开始明郎，因为投机客会观察当时的局势来作出决定。
政府不能对于房产价格飚升坐视不顾，因为万一房产泡沫爆破，其带来的影响即深且巨。
遏制炒风利弊兼具
由于房产带动超越200多个行业，政府必须确保房产的稳健发展。否则，我国将陷入另一轮的金融风暴。况且，确保人人能拥有自己的房屋是政府的职责，正所谓居者有其屋。
如果任由屋价不受控制，难保大学毕业生也难拥有自己的居所。以目前大学生每月两三千元的收入，最多有能力购买两三百千的房产。倘若外国抢购我国的房产的谣言属实，届时很多国民将向外国和租屋也不足为奇！
目前国行建议的80%房贷的顶限，不能克制投票者的炒风。因为投机者都是那些资金雄厚的一群。中国有关当局在房产炒风炽盛之时，也以房贷为制止炒风的工具，结果碰了一鼻子灰；因为投机者并不需要贷款也能大量收购房产。
每个制止炒风的措施，都会有其利弊。有视于中上层房产炒风炽盛，今天，不单只是贫穷的一群，政府也应该规定房屋发展商在某些地点建筑某些数量的房屋给中等收入且具有资格的我国公民的购买，以确保中层阶级收入者也居者有其屋。
中国北京上海房地产价格的飚升，美国的次贷风波，都足以引为前车之槛，以免重蹈覆辙，则国民幸矣！
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